Returns to ICT skills in European labour markets, trade unions and contractual cleavages

In the last decades, socio-economic literature has paid considerable attention to the distribution of costs and benefits of technological introduction and ICT diffusion for different segments of the workforce, mainly across distinct occupational or educational groups. This study explores how wage returns to ICT use differ between temporary and permanent workers focusing on the role of trade unions in mitigating this contractual divide. Using recent European microdata from the ESJ2 survey (CEDEFOP 2022), we examine whether union membership enhances wage outcomes for temporary workers using digital skills, and how this effect varies depending on national patterns of union representation. By combining individual-level information with country-level indicators of trade union density across contractual types, we assess how micro and macro level dynamics shape wage parity in ICT returns. Overall, our findings reveal a clear penalty for non-unionised temporary workers. The protective role of trade union membership is nonetheless significant only in national contexts characterized by similar level of trade union density across contractual groups. These results underscore both the conditionalities and potentials of industrial relations in fostering inclusive labour markets amid technological change.